Apple reports earnings on Tuesday, and its quarterly revenue is expected to fall from the year-ago quarter for the first time since 2003.
That’s because iPhone growth has finally hit the wall. Ming-Chi Kuo at KGI Securities has historically been one of the most accurate analysts covering Apple, and he predicts the company will sell between 190 million and 205 million phones this year. As this chart from Statista shows, that will make this the first year of falling sales since the iPhone was introduced in 2007.
The iPhone did more to change the tech industry than any other product since the personal computer. It kicked off the smartphone revolution, which created and destroyed entire industries. And 200 million iPhones a year is still a great and incredibly profitable business. But Apple’s growth will have to come from somewhere else.