- Wikimedia Commons
2016 has been one for the history books.
On Wall Street, the year started off with record low levels of activity – in fact, the first quarter was the worst for equity, debt, loan, and advisory revenues since 2009 – and took months to get back on track.
Now the year is capping off with bank stocks on a tear since the November 8 election of Donald Trump as president.
So where will we go from here?
Business Insider spoke with a number of dealmakers, including both equity capital markets and mergers and acquisitions bankers, about the biggest trends to expect in 2017.
Much of their responses centered around the incoming Trump administration and what his presidency will mean for the markets. They all said next year is sure to be more active than 2016 has been (of course, it’s hard to come by a banker who isn’t bullish on his or her own industry).
On the IPO side, especially tech IPOs, bankers anticipate an opening up of the window, provided equity markets remain emboldened. Both the S&P and Dow have hit all-time highs multiple times since the election.
In M&A, bankers are anticipating that regulatory changes and the possibility of new tax and other policies will boost activity in 2017.
Below, in one or two sentences each, is what some of Wall Street’s top dealmakers had to say.
Anu Aiyengar — head of North American M&A at JPMorgan
“We expect fundamental drivers for M&A to remain in place and potential pro-business policy changes to further enhance it. US Companies will continue to need M&A to grow and drive shareholder value. Access to capital for acquisitions will continue to boost M&A, in addition to low interest rates and robust equity markets. Additionally, expected cash repatriation, corporate tax reform and deregulation could spur M&A activity in 2017.”
Dan Dees — global head of tech, media, and telecommunications banking, Goldman Sachs
- Photo courtesy of Goldman Sachs
“Expect to see significant Tech IPO activity and continuation of healthy M&A market.”
Rich Handler — CEO of Jefferies Group
- Getty Images/ Rob Kim
“I am looking for the beginning of the slow, but inevitable rise of interest rates that will contribute to the also slow return of true stock pickers/investors ability to add value. This will slowly replace the market movements that have been dominated by macro trends forcing the mass buying and selling of baskets of securities.”
Anthony Kontoleon — global head of syndicate in equity capital markets, Credit Suisse
- Credit Suisse
“I’m excited for the return of a vibrant IPO market in 2017 – everyone loves a great new story – and hopefully looking forward to a more sensible regulatory environment in which to operate!”
Riaz Ladhabhoy — cohead of internet investment banking, Deutsche Bank
- Deutsche Bank
“A few big tech IPOs could kick off strong IPO activity. Smart economic stimulus (repatriation holiday, corporate tax cuts, a smart infrastructure bill) could also result in strong markets.”
Frank Maturo — vice chairman, equity capital markets in the Americas, UBS
- REUTERS/Brendan McDermid
“The one thing I am looking out for (and hoping for) in 2017 is the dual track process with private companies leading to more IPOs than sales of those companies, given the rally in the Russell 2000 with small and mid-size companies.”
John Humphreys — head of North American investment banking, advisory & solutions, Mizuho Americas
“With the equity market at 10-year highs and debt markets still liquid, I am expecting an uptick in stock buy backs as well as M&A into next year once the new administration’s tax policies become a bit clearer.”
Kate Claassen — head of consumer internet banking, Morgan Stanley
- Morgan Stanley
“We are overdue for the next consumer internet app to take off … expect something founded in the last few years to hit its stride in 2017.”