- Business Insider/Andy Kiersz, data from RealClearPolitics and Washington Post/SurveyMonkey
After a tumultuous week for Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump, the electoral map has swung dramatically in favor of his Democratic counterpart, Hillary Clinton.
Since last week, eight swing states and one congressional district have shifted to be more favorable to the former secretary of state. Not one swing state or congressional district with its own Electoral College vote moved more in favor of Trump.
Using polling data from RealClearPolitics and Washington Post/Survey Monkey, Business Insider found that Clinton, as of this week, would lead Trump by 272 to 181 electoral votes in states that were either safe or likely bets to go in favor of either party’s nominee. That alone would give Clinton more than the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the nomination. It’s a vast difference from last week’s projection, which showed Clinton with a 237-to-187 edge in the same categories.
Business Insider judged that a safe state was anywhere in which a candidate led by at least 8 percentage points, while a likely state was anywhere in which the nominee held a 4- to 8-point lead.
When including states leaning toward a candidate by 2 to 4 points, Clinton held a 316-to-187 advantage over Trump. Last week, Clinton was up 301-to-216 when including this category.
The tossups, any state in which the major-party nominees held a lead of less than 2 points, consisted of 35 electoral votes. Last week, the two states that were too close to call were Nevada and North Carolina. This week, North Carolina started leaning toward Clinton, while Arizona and Ohio were downgraded from leaning toward Trump to being a tossup.
The two critical battleground states of Pennsylvania and Colorado moved much more in favor of Clinton. Both were only leaning in her favor as of last week. Now Pennsylvania is considered a “safe” state, while Colorado is considered “likely” based on the latest polls.
That polling is a reflection on the brutal week for Trump’s candidacy. On Friday, a leaked tape of Trump from 2005 showed him making crude sexual remarks about women, including that he could “grab” women “by the p—y” because “when you’re a star they let you do it.”
Also, many viewed Trump to have lost the second presidential debate to Clinton on Sunday night, during which he threatened to jail her should he win in November.
And articles published Wednesday, too recent to be reflected in the latest polling, featured several women who came forward to say Trump had made unwanted sexual advances on them. Trump denied their claims, calling one instance “phony.”