President Donald Trump just got a nasty review of his immigration plans from the alma mater he loves to tout.
A new study from the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton business school found that the proposals he backs would dent growth and cost over 1 million jobs over 10 years.
The president has strongly endorsed a bill introduced by US Sens. Tom Cotton and David Perdue called the Raise Act, which adds to the president’s campaign promise to focus on illegal immigration by going after legal immigrants as well.
Its proponents say they want to welcome only “good” immigrants – those with a lot of money and high levels of education. But the Wharton report finds that the legislation, which is supposedly aimed at boosting economic growth and creating more American jobs, would actually have the opposite effect.
“By 2027, our analysis projects that RAISE will reduce GDP by 0.7% relative to current law, and reduce jobs by 1.3 million,” the study says. “By 2040, GDP will be about 2% lower and jobs will fall by 4.6 million.”
Nearly 100,000 jobs would be lost in the first year alone, the estimates suggest. “Over the long run, immigrants work and contribute to savings,” the report says.
Economists widely agree that steady immigration is key to a diverse and healthy economy, with population growth alone making an important contribution. Neel Kashkari, the president of the Minneapolis Fed, argued recently that restricting immigration would restrain growth.
The charts below illustrates the potential drag to growth and employment from the proposed law as estimated by Wharton:
- Penn Wharton
- Penn Wharton