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- After a slow start to the season, Cortana has caught fire in recent weeks. The two models we’re tracking have correctly picked 63% of the games this season. Cortana has nailed 83% of the games in the last 3 weeks.
The NFL season is now in Week 10, and one of the two computer models we are tracking has caught fire in recent weeks.
In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team’s winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.
Both models had been doing well in recent weeks, but Cortana is the one that is still on fire. Cortana went 10-3 in Week 9 and is now 34-7 (83%) over the last three weeks. It is now 85-47 (64%) overall, five games better than Elo (80-52, 61%). Elo went just 5-8 in Week 9 as Cortana correctly picked all five games the two computers disagreed on.
Here are the picks for Week 10, with each model’s percent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.
- Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Arizona Cardinals – SEAHAWKS (Elo 56%, Cortana 75%)
- Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Washington Redskins – NO PICK (Elo 50%), VIKINGS (Cortana 64%)Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-5.5) – PACKERS (Elo 55%), BEARS (Cortana 58%)Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Indianapolis Colts – STEELERS (Elo 69%, Cortana 77%) Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) – JAGUARS (Elo 67%, Cortana 58%) New York Jets (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – BUCCANEERS (Elo 53%), JETS (Cortana 60%)Cincinnati Bengals at Tennessee Titans (-4.5) – TITANS (Elo 63%, Cortana 60%) New Orleans Saints (-3) at Buffalo Bills – SAINTS (Elo 52%, Cortana 63%) Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-11.5) – LIONS (Elo 88%, Cortana 75%) Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-12) – RAMS (Elo 71%, Cortana 74%) Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3) – FALCONS (Elo 56%, Cortana 55%) New York Giants (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers – GIANTS (Elo 62%, Cortana 57%) New England Patriots (-7.5) at Denver Broncos – PATRIOTS (Elo 71%, Cortana 79%)
- Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers (-9) – PANTHERS (Elo 71%, Cortana 72%)