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Gambling is a grind.
Week in and week out, it’s a bettor’s job to watch every game they can, keep an eye on weather reports, injury reports, and athletes’ social media posts for any piece of information that might give them an edge. If things go well, you might only lose half of your bets.
After our worst gambling day of the season in Week 8, we bounced back a little bit last week, but still posted a losing record. Let’s get straight to the lines and do our best to end this cold streak.
LAST WEEK: 5-7-1 OVERALL: 66-61-5
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Arizona Cardinals (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET)
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The pick: Seahawks -6.5
The logic: Seattle on “Thursday Night Football” means one important thing – Lime Green Seahawks Color Rush jerseys. The Seahawks embarrassed themselves at home last week, falling to the Redskins after I had picked them to cover a touchdown. Meanwhile, Drew Stanton laughed in my face after picking the winless Niners as my lock of the week.
We’re doubling down against Drew Stanton, praying that Adrian Peterson is a little bit tired from putting the team on his back last week, and picking the Seahawks to get back into fighting shape after a few off weeks.
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Buffalo Bills (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Al Bello/Getty Images
The pick: Bills +3
The logic: The Saints have won six straight and are arguably the hottest team in football, but this one has “trap game” written all over it. Give me the home dogs and an offensive attack of Tyrod Taylor and LeSean McCoy to remind us what the Saints defense can look like when they run into a talented, multi-threat team.
Green Bay Packers (+5.5) at Chicago Bears (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Wesley Hitt/Getty Images
The pick: Bears -5.5
The logic: The Packers quarterback situation is… not great. After a somewhat promising first drive, Brett Hundley settled into form, throwing four interceptions on the way to the Packers home loss to the Lions. The team wasn’t much to look at already, and has now released veteran tight end Martellus Bennett in a move that signals to me that they’re calling it quits on the year. The Bears love to play well at home and sport a ferocious defense, and are not yet totally eliminated from the NFC playoff picture. This is just a matter of who wants it more.
Cleveland Browns (+12) at Detroit Lions (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Naomi Baker/Getty Images
The pick: Browns +12
The logic: Last week the Browns were on bye and I was temporarily freed from my cursed existence of betting the Browns every Sunday. But now they are back, and once again double-digit underdogs. The Browns are going to win at some point this season, and I’ve invested too much time to give up on them now. I can’t walk away – I’m pot committed.
Please, next year, when I try to bet on the Browns Week 1, punch me in the face.
Cincinnati Bengals (+4.5) at Tennessee Titans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Michael Reaves/Getty Images
The pick: Titans -4.5
The logic: The Bengals are really bad and the Titans are at least fairly good. Hoping Marcus Mariota can TITAN UP at home and not make this one too difficult. I’d be careful here though, as it’s another one of those games that almost feels too easy.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-10) at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Gregory Shamus/Getty Images
The pick: Colts +10
The logic: Close your eyes and take the double-digit dog at home. It feels awful in the moment but it works out more times than it doesn’t I promise.
New York Jets (-2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Christian Petersen/Getty Images
The pick: Buccaneers +2.5
The logic: An extra-rare matchup of dueling revenge games, as Ryan Fitzpatrick and Josh McCown both take on their former employers. Fitzgerald (now beardless), seems more likely to hold a grudge to me, as McCown has played for so many teams it has to be tough to know who he’d be mad at anymore. Also, according to SportsInsights, the Jets are currently getting 80% of the action on this one, which is just way too suspicious to ignore.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Washington Redskins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Jon Durr/Getty Images
The pick: Vikings -1.5
The logic: Teddy Bridgewater is officially back on the Vikings active roster after a 15 month absence. While he won’t be starting on Sunday, he’ll be dressed and ready to take snaps if necessary, and it’s easy to see the team stepping up knowing that they’re in a position to make a real push in the postseason should Bridgewater find his rhythm. Also, it seems like a good idea to fade the Redskins coming off of a hard-fought win against the Seahawks.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Logan Bowles/Getty Images
The pick: Chargers +3.5
The logic: Jalen Ramsey got A.J. Green to snap last week, after (as he tells it), repeatedly calling the Bengals star wide receiver “soft.” I love the confidence, but this feels like a trap game for the Jags. Philip Rivers knows how to score quick, so even if the Jaguars are up there’s plenty of potential for a garbage time backdoor cover.
That said, I also would not be surprised if Ramsey picked off Rivers three times all by himself.
Houston Texans (+12) at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
- Bob Levey/Getty Images
The pick: Texans +12
The logic: This is a bad bet but it’s too many points to pass up. Just skip this one altogether and save your money for elsewhere on the slate.
Dallas Cowboys (+3) at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
- Ron Jenkins/Getty Images
The pick: Falcons -3
The logic: After an ongoing courtroom drama with way too many chapters, it appears that Ezekiel Elliott will finally start his six-game suspension this Sunday. Meanwhile, team owner Jerry Jones has all but officially declared war on NFL commissioner Roger Goodell. When in doubt, bet on the team that is not causing open chaos for the league – at the very least you might get an extra flag or two that goes your way.
New York Giants (-2.5) at San Francisco 49ers (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
- Al Bello/Getty Images
The pick: 49ers +2.5
The logic: So the 49ers are not a good football team, but the Giants are in a free fall, with talk of a quarterback change and a head coach that has clearly lost his players. I wouldn’t touch them with a ten-foot pole.
New England Patriots (-7.5) at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
- Jim Rogash/Getty Images
The pick: Broncos +7.5
The logic: Betting against the Patriots isn’t the smartest play in Vegas, and coming off a bye week and facing a team whose defense let up 51 points last week seems like an especially risky endeavor, but here we are. Brady never had his best games in Denver, and right now, 82% of bettors are taking the Patriots. We’ll swerve the other way and hope for the best.
Miami Dolphins (+9) at Carolina Panthers (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
- Streeter Lecka/Getty Images
The pick: Panthers -9
The logic: This is a lot of points to lay against a Dolphins team that has turned out to be better than expected in just about every facet of the game, but Cam and the Panthers can do it. Miami is player their third consecutive primetime game, and it’s tough to step up for the bright lights three weeks in a row.
Now check out our Week 10 power rankings to get a glimpse of where each team stands heading into the second half of the season
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