- Jason Miller/Getty Images
Another week, another miracle cover saving our picks from falling apart.
This time it was the Kansas City Chiefs saving bettors wallets in the final seconds, with Chiefs linebacker Justin Houston recovering a fumble and taking it to the end zone on the final play of the game to give the Chiefs a backdoor cover that they will never forget.
It’s a good reminder that gambling is not for the faint of heart.
This week, we’ll hope to land on the right side of all of the nail-biting decisions yet again. There are a few tricky lines out there that seem to be tempting bettors into their comfort like a Siren’s song, but do not be fooled – if things look too good to be true, they probably are.
We’re coming off our second straight week of 7-9, and while we’re still up on the season, now would be a good time to get back to our winning ways and make some cash. Hopefully the Browns hear my plea.
All lines come courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
LAST WEEK: 7-9 OVERALL: 35-28
New England Patriots (-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET)
- Joe Robbins/Getty Images
The pick: Buccaneers +5
The logic: This one is a nightmare when it comes to picking a side. On one hand you have the Buccaneers as a home underdog going against a Patriots team that appears to have one of the worst defenses in the country. On the other, you have Bill Belichick and Tom Brady coming off a loss, which always seems like a sure bet. I’m taking the Buccos here because they have cooler Color Rush jerseys, but I highly recommend just betting the over and saving your big money for later on in the week.
New York Jets (PK) at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Jason Miller/Getty Images
The pick: Browns PK
The logic: If you bet on the Jets this game you are betting on the Jets to win three games in a row, and that just seems like an absurd thing to bet on. Also, the Jets can’t afford to win this game and put themselves a full three games behind the Browns in the race for the first overall pick at next year’s draft. DeShone Kizer gets the first win of his career and the Dawg Pound goes home happy.
Buffalo Bills (+3) at Cincinnati Bengals (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Justin Aller/Getty Images
The pick: Bengals -3
The logic: This line is insane right? The Bills have beaten two of the best teams in football the past two weeks, and the Bengals just got their first win of the year against the Browns. The Bengals still haven’t scored a touchdown at home this year! So I’m backing Cincinnati, because this line makes no sense, and if the line makes no sense, Vegas knows something I don’t.
Carolina Panthers (+2.5) at Detroit Lions (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Hannah Foslien/Getty Images
The pick: Lions -2.5
The logic: I low-key think the Lions are going to the Super Bowl.
San Francisco 49ers (+1.5) at Indianapolis Colts (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images
The pick: Colts -1.5
The logic: The Colts are doing everything they can to stay competitive in the AFC South until Andrew Luck is healthy enough to play again. They’re only one game back of first place right now, but keeping pace with a home win against a beatable team is vital for them in this spot.
Tennessee Titans (NO LINE) at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Rich Schultz/Getty Images
The pick: Dolphins
The logic: We don’t yet know if Marcus Mariota will be healthy enough to play on Sunday, but either way I’m backing the Dolphins here and don’t really know why. I think I feel guilty for making fun of Jay Cutler last week after he quit on a play before the ball was even snapped.
Los Angeles Chargers (+3.5) at New York Giants (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Sean M. Haffey/Getty
The pick: Chargers +3.5
The logic: It’s a battle of 0-4 teams! I’m taking the points here because the Chargers have been playing road games all year and will be unphased by the boos raining down upon them at the Meadowlands. Also, it only takes one bad throw from Eli for the home crowd to turn on him.
Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The pick: Eagles -6.5
The logic: If the Eagles fans could turn their game in Los Angeles into a home game last week, imagine how hyped they’ll be to have the Birds back in Philadelphia.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+8) at Pittsburgh Steelers (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Al Bello/Getty Images
The pick: Jaguars +8
The logic: This line is a bit long for my taste, and the Steelers are a team that haven’t impressed me all that much so far this season and feel due for a let down. Plus, the Jaguars defense is better than people think – they might not be able to contain Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown, but they could potentially keep this one close.
Baltimore Ravens (+2.5) at Oakland Raiders (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
- Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images
The pick: Raiders -2.5
The logic: Raiders need to hold serve at home here until Derek Carr is healthy enough to return from injury. E.J. Manuel looked fine in his stint under center, and has started and won NFL football games before. With a full week of practice I’m confident he can do it again.
Seattle Seahawks (+1) at Los Angeles Rams (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
- Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images
The pick: Seahawks +1
The logic: The Seahawks finally looked like the team we remember them as last week, beating up on the Colts on Sunday night. While the Rams are surging and looking to be the next dominant team to beat in the NFC West, the Seahawks are the final boss they have to pass, and I don’t see Pete Carroll falling without a fight. That said, be weary of the damage Aaron Donald will put on an unimpressive Seahawks offensive line.
Green Bay Packers (+2) at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
- Tom Pennington/Getty Images
The pick: Cowboys -2
The logic: Cowboys are undervalued after two poor performances. Also, I saw this line and wanted to bet ALL OF MY MONEY on the Packers – a feeling I have learned over the years to bet against.
Kansas City Chiefs (PK) at Houston Texans (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
- Tim Warner/Getty Images
The pick: Texans PK
The logic: The Chiefs can’t win every game this year, and I can think of few players better suited to blow up their clever inside running game and shovel pass plays than J.J. Watt.
Minnesota Vikings (NO LINE) at Chicago Bears (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
- Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images
The pick: Bears
The logic:Mitch Trubisky is facing a daunting introduction to the NFL, going against the Vikings defense in first game before traveling to Baltimore to face the Ravens and one of the toughest home-field advantages in the league. I’m pulling for the kid.
LAST WEEK: 7-9OVERALL: 35-28
Now check out our power rankings heading into another week of NFL action
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