ORB phone poll: Remain 48 / Leave 47 YouGov online poll: Remain 43 / Leave 42 Leave has a clear advantage with people who are certain to vote
LONDON (Reuters) – Britons narrowly favor remaining in the European Union according to two polls published in Tuesday’s newspapers, in contrast to surveys released on Monday which showed the campaign for Brexit ahead.
Support for remaining in the EU had a one-point lead in both an online YouGov survey published for The Times newspaper and an ORB telephone poll of those definite to vote conducted for The Daily Telegraph.
Britons will vote on June 23 on whether to remain part of the EU, a choice with far-reaching consequences for politics, the economy, defense and diplomacy but divergent polls have made it difficult to predict the outcome.
- REUTERS/Luke McGregor
The ‘Remain’ campaign rose by 2 percentage points to 43 percent in the YouGov survey, overtaking the ‘Leave’ side which fell to 42 percent in a poll of 2,001 adults conducted on June 5 and 6.
In an ORB telephone poll released on Monday, support for remaining in the bloc fell but held a one-point lead over those wishing to leave the EU, smaller than the five-point difference in the pollster’s previous survey published on May 30.
Telephone polls have generally shown “remain” ahead by a comfortable margin whilst online polls have pointed to a tighter race that “leave” could win making it difficult to predict the outcome of the referendum.
Two online polls published on Monday by pollsters YouGov and ICM showed a swing towards “Out” as both campaigns seek to win over undecided voters with warnings over the economy and immigration.
This is what the latest surveys mean for Business Insider’s live EU referendum polls chart. As the arrow indicates, since April there has clearly been a steady increase in support for a Brexit.
- Business Insider
Writing in the Daily Telegraph, Lynton Crosby, the political strategist behind Prime Minister David Cameron’s election victory, said that ‘Remain’ had improved its overall performance according to ORB but when the findings were weighted according to the likelihood to vote, ‘Leave’ was catching up.
“The clear trend over the course of ORB’s polls for the Daily Telegraph shows that Leave campaign has a turnout advantage over the Remain campaign,” he said.
This means that turnout remains a serious concern for David Cameron and the rest of the politicians who are campaigning for Britain to stay in the 28-nation bloc.
According to the results of ORB’s latest poll, Remain has a 12-point lead over Leave (52/40) among all respondents. If the majority of people who said that they weren’t certain to vote do so on June 23, then Remain can expect victory.