Real Vision TV’s killer interviews of 2016

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RealVision TV

Real Vision TV interviewed a bunch of experts from all around the world in 2016 to discuss issues in finance and geopolitics.

From colorful hedge fund manager Hugh Hendry to China expert TL Tsim, the online financial TV channel had a whole range of market experts sit down for a chat.

As 2016 draws to a close, we present the best of Real Vision TV’s interviews.

Take a free seven day trial of Real Vision TV to see the interviews in full.


Jerry Haworth: ‘There’s going to be chaos’

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RealVision tv

“Even a homeless person can service a $1 billion loan at zero, so one wonders how it is going to end. It creates second order consequences where ‘People say, ‘well, it’s free money,’ and that I think is eventually going to create the inflation.

“Now that you have the inflation, now you’ve got the dilemma: What do you do with interest rates? If interest rates follow suit, there’s going to be chaos. Equity markets, property markets, bond markets. Can you imagine the property market in London at [an interest rate of] 7%? Probably the price will drop 50% to 75%.”

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Josh Wolfe: ‘Wherever you hear parents bemoaning ‘it will rot your brain,’ I think it’s predictive of the next $10 billion industry’

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Lux Capital

“‘It’ll rot your brain’ literally predicted every major $10 billion industry from the ’50s on. The biggest and most important jobs today where there’s very high demand, drone pilots, robotic surgeons. They all learned at the heels of playing PlayStation and XBox. So wherever you hear parents bemoaning it will rot your brain, I think it’s predictive of the next $10 billion industry of Generation X.”

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Danielle DiMartino Booth: ‘The Baby Boomers are no longer an actuarial theory’

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RealVision TV

“If the actuaries are going to force the checks to be written and reduce the rate of returned assumptions to anything remotely related to reality, then we won’t be laughing anymore looking in the rear view mirror at the riots in the streets of Athens a few years back.”

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Valerio Onida: ‘In the history of Europe, nationalism has always meant wars’

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RealVision TV

“Nationalism is a great danger for Europe, for all the European countries. In the history of Europe, nationalism has always meant wars, and the last great war started right in the heart of Europe… The real breakthrough, made at the end of World War II is leaving behind nationalisms and national egotisms, to try and reach a greater continental and global unity. This also happened thanks to the foundation of the United Nations and the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. In this, Americans were the first starters. I remember the role of Eleanor Roosevelt in creating the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Now we risk losing this goal, this vision that identifies the future with international co-operation and European integration. We are barricading ourselves in our national borders. This is really dangerous.”

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Adair Turner: ‘We are in a deeply profound deflationary trap’

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RealVision TV

“If our problem is that we don’t have enough demand in the economy, if our problem is that we don’t have enough inflation, rather than too much inflation, then we never run out of ammunition. Because there’s always something that we can do, which is to run fiscal deficits and finance them with central bank printed money.”

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Russell Napier: ‘The nine most dangerous words in the English language are: ‘We’re from the government and we’re here to help you.”

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RealVision TV

“A lot of people think central bankers will keep going forever, but if we ever go to inflation, they clearly have to stop expanding their balance sheet, but somebody has to buy the government debt. So let’s say the fiscal policy comes. It succeeds. We get growth. We get inflation. Central bank balance sheets cannot expand in the growth and inflation. So who’s going to buy the government debt? The answer is you are. Particularly if you work for a regulated financial institution. It’s much better if you’re an individual. But regulated financial institutions are the people who will be expected to do that, and that is financial repression.”

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TL Tsim: ‘The Chinese model is a bitter, long-standing civil war’

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RealVision

“In spite of all of the intelligence, the learning, and the experience of the Chinese people over 5,000 years, they have not come up with a system of government which can deal with the effective and peaceful transfer of power. In the West, you do it through the ballot box. So Brexit is Brexit. You accept it. But in China, the fight goes on.”

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Doug Noland: ‘It’s a global bubble’

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RealVision TV

“This bubble, it’s gone to the heart and soul of money and credit. And right now central bankers are basically doing everything to keep it going. So this one, we’re what, eight years into it? I think we’re really late, but we don’t know to what extent central bankers will continue to try to sustain the backdrop.”

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Gordon ‘Dee’ Smith: ‘You have created a global matrix that really has no precedent in human civilization’

source
BI

“The biggest pitfall that investors make is to get very involved with a project and fall in love with it and make friends with the principals and essentially get to a point where they’re very heavily invested, emotionally and intellectually.”

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Raoul Pal: ‘Start businesses, and that will make you money’

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Real Vision Television

“The highest return on capital right now is not investing – it’s building a business. You can make 20% a year owning a coffee shop, but you can’t make 20% easily, you’d have to beat all the best hedge fund managers in the world, in the stock market.”

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Jesse Felder: ‘I’m not calling for a stock market crash. I think that’s asinine’

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RealVision TV

“Think about all of these variable annuities or whatever, and say we will reduce our exposure when volatility goes up. Risk parity, trying to do the same thing. And there’s just a massive amount of money that’s now tied to volatility targeting and risk parity. And you can just start to see OK, that’s a lot of risk structurally in the way investors are positioned in the markets that we have never seen before.”

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Steve Keen: ‘Let’s use the state’s capacity to create money”

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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:SteveKeen01.jpg

“The reason we have the slowdown in Europe and America and England to some degree, is that we have too much private debt and people don’t want to take any more debt on, so credit growth is very low and therefore, demand is low because credit has been a component of demand from the 1940s all the way through to now. So you can get out of that problem by using the government’s capacity to create money to cancel that private debt and effectively go from having a strongly credit-based money system to more fiat based.”


Jim Walker: ‘The economics stack up really well through Southeast Asia”

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RealVision TV

“I’m thinking that after 25 years in Asia, I’ve never seen this region look better in terms of its platform for growth going forward. Now that’s a big statement from me because I’m not exactly the most bullish person in the world coming from where I come from.”

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Hugh Hendry: ‘It’s not just necessary that you’re correct; you need to consider the consequences of being correct’

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RealVision TV

“Now again, with the mastery and the art of macro [investing], the process is so complex that it’s not just necessary that you’re correct; you need to consider the consequences of being correct.

“We had position whereby the other side [of the trade], the investment banks, they were desperate. They were dying as this thing suddenly came to my strike levels, blew through my strike levels, started to create this monster of a P&L, which was mirrored by a monster loss on the other side.

“And so daily we had pleadings. ‘Please, please, please can we remove.’ So not only had we conceived of a great monster P&L trade, which was … the catalyst was adversity. Liquidity came to us, allowing us to monetize and close. That’s macro.”

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Edward Misrahi: ‘The best tail-risk insurance there is right now is puts on Deutsche Bank’

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RealVision

“I think that they are going to get nationalised. I think for me, that is the best hedge of any portfolio. Incredibly, you can still buy out-of-the money puts, not that expensively, which I find crazy.”

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Rory Hills: ‘It is so expensive for people to set up a new fund’

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RealVision

“What we need is more platforms, the old-school kind that existed before the crisis but don’t exist so much anymore. Cheyne is still going. That type of platform I think we need more of. More people who have the apparatus, particularly in this increasingly regulated world – it is so expensive for people to set up a new fund. I think there is a real role for new platforms, who have all the regulatory stuff, all the compliance, all the infrastructure, all of that set up so people can come in and switch on a Bloomberg. That has to be combined with a decent seeding level.”

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