Here’s which parts of Mexico’s economy will get slammed if Trump puts his Twitter threats into action

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Imelda Medina/Reuters

President-elect Donald Trump has maintained his protectionist stance since the election, and recently threatened automotive manufacturers Toyota and GM on Twitter over plans to shift production to Mexico.

In light of that, it’s worth examining which sectors in Mexico could get hit the hardest in the event Trump’s proposed protectionist measures are implemented following his inauguration.

Neil Shearing, the chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, shared a chart in a note to clients of the top 20 exports from Mexico to the US in 2015 by dollar value.

The number one export category, by far, is vehicles and vehicle parts, totaling almost $80 billion – or about 25% of the country’s total exports to the US – according to data from Intracen. The next three on the list are electrical components, food, and computers.

“The upshot, then, is that targeted measures imposed on the vehicle, electronics, and food and beverage sectors would hit Mexico’s economy especially hard,” wrote Shearing. “Similarly, in the event of a blanket tariff across all sectors, producers in these areas would be among the hardest hit.”

“This provides context for Mr. Trump’s assault on vehicle producers,” he continued. As for the other sectors, “up to now, Mr Trump has had little to say about [them], but it’s worth monitoring his comments over the coming weeks and months as his policy agenda takes shape.”

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Capital Economics