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What a week!
We had our best Saturday of the college football season last week, going a fantastic 6-1 against the spread.
Our one miss was an embarrassing misread of the Mississippi State game, for which I take all the blame, but with easy covers from Oklahoma, USC, LSU, and others, we still made a bunch of money, for which I happily take all the credit.
Joking aside, it’s another tough week for gamblers out there, with much more risk involved as the stakes are raised week after week for the teams on the field. I’ll say that I suggest that this is a week you’re careful with your money – these games are compelling enough to enjoy without having a financial rooting interest in them. That said, it’s our duty to make seven picks against the number week after week.
Here’s our betting breakdown of Week 11 of the college football season.
All lines are courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
LAST WEEK: 6-1 OVERALL: 40-30
Mississippi St (+14) over Alabama
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Last week, taking Mississippi State to cover as huge favorites against UMass was our only losing pick of the week. It was obviously the wrong pick, and I offer my apologies. To make it up to you, here’s a winner. Mississippi State is getting way too many points against Alabama this week. The Bulldogs can score and will be fighting to protect home turf. After last week’s scare against an inferior opponent, you can be sure they’ll be wide awake for this one.
Auburn (+2.5) over Georgia
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While I hate to bet against Georgia, it feels like this is the week they might stumble. Auburn is a tough road environment, and as visiting favorites that have been designated the best team in the country, Georgia is in unfamiliar territory. I expect Auburn to at the very least keep this one close – but this game is likely good enough you won’t need to bet on it to enjoy what it has to offer.
Ohio State (-16.5) over Michigan State
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Ohio State underperformed last week and Michigan State over-performed last week. There will be a lot of talk heading into this game about how the Spartans can pull this one out with one right bounce this way or that, and then I expect the Buckeyes to jump out to a huge lead right away and never look back.
Miami (+3.5) over Notre Dame
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The U is back! At least it sure looked like it last weekend against Virginia Tech. Notre Dame is a much better team than the Hurricanes took down last weekend, and could very likely trounce Miami on Saturday. But you see a bold confidence when you watch The U play and it feels wrong to bet against it. This one is much more heart than head.
Wisconsin (-12.5) over Iowa
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After beating down Ohio State last weekend, Iowa is not going to surprise the Badgers. Iowa is known throughout the Big Ten as a terrifying team to play when you’re ranked. But the Hawkeyes have now gotten their spoiler for the season out of the way. Wisconsin will likely need to go undefeated for the year to make the playoff, so they still have everything to play for each and every Saturday, and style points still count.
Purdue (+4.5) over Northwestern
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I LOVED this pick when I saw the number at first, but then I found out that the snow is coming down pretty hard at Northwestern, which won’t be totally conducive to Purdue’s high-octane offense. So now I just like the pick.
Oklahoma (-6.5) over TCU
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Last week, Baker Mayfield proved himself a worthy frontrunner for the Heisman, taking down Oklahoma State to come back home from the Red River Rivalry a hero. According to ESPN’s Chris Fallica, TCU is looking to be the first team in the history of the Big 12 to beat both OU and OSU on the road in the same season, and I just don’t see it happening with Mayfield so locked in.
Now check out all the best bets that Week 10 has to offer
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