- Disney is preparing for a full-scale rivalry with Netflix.
- That means Disney needs all the programming it can get as it plans for a direct-to-consumer, digitally-dominated media future.
- Disney’s first shot in this war was to announce a deal to buy a collection of assets from 21st Century Fox.
- More deals are sure to follow.
It’s official: Disney has announced a $52.4 billion media-industry-rocking deal to acquire a collection of assets from 21st Century Fox.
The deal comes as media companies look for ways to survive as consumers shift their attention to ad-free streaming services from Netflix and Amazon, cut the cord in increasing numbers and spend an inordinate amount of time glued to mobile screens and social media.
Disney’s already declared that it is going to war with Netflix by launching its own streaming service. Already Disney has some big assets to offer subscribers to this potential service, including movies made by its own studios and the rights to mega-hits like Star Wars. But it’s going to need as many big guns as it can get in that fight. If the future is less about cable bundles and classic TV advertising, and more about bringing content directly to paying subscribers, giants like Disney can’t stand pat. That’s where Fox comes in.
In a statement announcing the deal, the fourth bullet point read:
- Expands Disney’s direct-to-consumer offerings with addition of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment content, capabilities in the Americas, Europe and Asia; Hulu stake becomes a controlling interest
As one industry observer put it, “nobody knows what the business model of the future is. But if you have a lot of content, you’re either going to get people to pay for it, run ads in it, or license it to somebody. So this is a pretty good hedge for Disney.”
So, here’s what we’re thinking about in terms of breaking down the potential deal:
Building out a super-powered library
Disney’s content library seems as good as it gets: Mickey, Pixar, Marvel. Given the company’s plans to pull back on Netflix distribution to build out its own streaming service, it’s arguably in great shape to launch its own streaming subscription business.
But as consumer media consumption fragments more every year, Disney will need as extensive a menu as possible to make sure they have something for everybody’s plate, said Mike Kelly, CEO of Kelly Newman Ventures, a media industry consulting firm.
“Media has always been a distribution business, but digital is about one-to-one,” he said. “So the only way to remain central to consumers is to continue to have scale by owning as much of a library as possible.”
Netflix’s approach to this has been to spend heavily to develop new shows, and compete with the likes of HBO and major TV networks for potential hits. With Fox, Disney would grab the rights to a trusted library including X-Men, Deadpool, Planet of the Apes, Avatar, and Captain Underpants, and of course the added capability of finding and nurturing future blockbusters.
Defending against FANG
Beside fighting Netflix, everyone in media is making sure they don’t get taken out by the rest of Silicon Valley – namely Facebook, Google, Amazon and Apple. These companies have huge scale, deep pockets and are getting aggressive in content while dominating digital advertising.
“People talk about Facebook and Google taking 85 cents of every dollar in digital ads, but the way those companies look at it is that they are only taking like 20% of advertising overall,” said Kelly. “They want it all.”
Indeed, overall the so-called FANG companies “are trying to eat [media’s] lunch,” he said. For big media players, “this is about being around five years from now.”
What about sports?
This is where it gets really interesting, as Fox’s regional sports networks are included in this deal. That will give it control of local sports networks like Fox Sports Detroit, which broadcasts Detroit Tigers and Detroit Pistons games, and part of the Yes Network in New York, which streams the Yankees and Brooklyn Nets.
Meanwhile, FS1, Fox’s fledgling ESPN wannabe, and FS2 and Big Ten Network are being spun off as part of a newly listed company that will also own Fox News Channel and Fox Business Network.
There’s a massive amount of money in local sports rights and advertising. And remember, like parent company Disney, ESPN is planning to launch its own direct-to-consumer sports streaming service, which could suddenly become a lot more enticing to fans of certain local teams. Is this why Disney purchased the streaming technology firm BAMTech?
In other words, even if companies like Amazon and Facebook continued to dabble in live sports rights, the Fox deal is a total game changer for Disney.
Disney/Fox deal would be a massive boost for ESPN if they can use those local RSNs to boost their new OTT service. That’s a huge win if so.
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) December 5, 2017
This is huge, although it would seem to run counter to FOXA's stated desire to focus on sports/news. RSNs are basically ATMs. https://t.co/elAgXbvQRL
— Anthony Crupi (@crupicrupicrupi) December 5, 2017
Don’t forget FX
If a Disney/Fox mashup is about traditional media girding for an ‘over the top’ future, the FX network could provide to be a great test case. The network has produced a continued slate of prestige shows with small, but passionate fan bases (“The Americans” got a shoutout in the deal announcement) FX has recently begun offering an ad-free version of the network to Comcast subscribers for $6 a month.
FX CEO John Landgraf is one of the more respected minds in the TV business, and coined the phrase ‘peak TV’ describing the current glut of scripted series. He said a few months ago during an Advertising Week event that a linear TV network may not be “the best expression of our brand.” Maybe FX tries to become the next HBO Go?
Or, as Landgraf noted, maybe FX figures out a way to bring premium TV content to consumers for free – with a limited number of targeted ads. Either way, FX would be a solid addition to the Disney portfolio.
The power of Avatar
Fox is spending over $1 billion on four planned sequels to James Cameron’s smash hit “Avatar.” Those movies basically have to work. Is anyone better suited to maximizing a franchise like that (theme parks, merchandise, etc.) than Disney?
From the deal announcement:
“The addition of Avatar to its family of films also promises expanded opportunities for consumers to watch and experience storytelling within these extraordinary fantasy worlds. Already, guests at Disney’s Animal Kingdom Park at Walt Disney World Resort can experience the magic of Pandora-The World of Avatar, a new land inspired by the Fox film franchise that opened earlier this year.”
“I’m not sure this is about taking on Netflix,” Chris Silbermann, managing partner of the Hollywood talent firm ICM Partners told Business Insider. “You only need a few big shows to get a subscription service going, like say CBS All Access (with the new “Star Trek”). But on the film side, this makes total sense. Disney owns it from a big brand perspective. You get access to more Marvel brands like X-Men and Fantastic Four. And given the multibillion bet they have on Avatar alone, there’s only one company in the world that can market and leverage it to its full potential, and that’s Disney.”
Netflix won’t stay still and may want to make more deals
Netflix is planning to spend an astonishing $8 billion on content next year. How can they keep this spending up? Its subscription service offers a better business model than cable TV or advertising, argued Ted Sarandos, Netflix’s chief content officer, speaking at the UBS event.
Sarandos also gushed about the company’s recent acquisition of the comic book publisher Millarworld, which provides Netflix with exclusive access to a stable of characters that could be turned into TV shows and movies.
“It’s very freeing… owning your IP,” said Sarandos. Owning IP can lead to much bigger relationships and partnerships, he said. And Sarandos didn’t shoot down the idea when he was asked if Netflix might want to make more such deals.
To read more about media’s Game of Thrones-like machinations, click here.