- Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images
The polls are tightening as Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton now have less than 10 days before judgment day on November 8.
Amid the fallout over FBI Director James Comey’s bombshell letter to congressional leaders on Friday reactivating the investigation into Clinton’s private email server, Trump has seen his deficit in the RealClearPolitics polling average shrink to fewer than 3 points nationally.
In the two-way race, that’s the tightest the polls have been since early October – before The New York Times released part of Trump’s 1995 tax returns that showed he may have avoided paying federal income tax for years, and before a tape emerged of Trump boasting of being able to make sexual advances on women regardless of their consent.
That was also before several women subsequently said Trump had made unwanted sexual advances on them, and before two of the presidential debates.
The numbers on Monday showed a near identical spread between Clinton and Trump when Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein were factored in, with Clinton leading by 2.8 points.
Sunday’s 2.6-point lead for Clinton in the four-way average was also the closest it had been since the start of October.
Here’s a look:
A new batch of battleground state polls published Sunday, meanwhile, by the GOP firm Remington Research showed that the race has remained virtually the same in the days since the email revelation. But many of the key states show a close race that could swing the balance either way.
Clinton held a lead of 1 point in Colorado, 2 points in Pennsylvania, 4 points in Virginia, and 4 points in Wisconsin, compared with leads the week before of 2, 3, 5, and 5 points, respectively.
Trump held a lead of 4 points in Florida – the biggest swing compared with last week, when Remington showed a tied race there – a 2-point lead in North Carolina, a 4-point lead in Nevada, and a 5-point lead in Ohio. The swings in the latter two states also represented a slight improvement for Trump.
However, Clinton is polling better in each state in the RealClearPolitics average for each state.
The only national poll conducted and published after Friday’s FBI revelation came from Politico/Morning Consult. It found that Clinton had the same 3-point lead she had before the news broke.
The chart below shows how the litany of October surprises has, somehow, done little to affect Morning Consult’s polling:
- Politico/Morning Consult
In renowned statistician Nate Silver’s “polls-plus” forecast on the data journalism outlet FiveThirtyEight, Clinton’s chances of winning on November 8 stood at 75.8%, a low point since early October. But the projection has her easily hitting the needed 270 electoral votes to capture the presidency.
The most recent Business Insider electoral projection, published before the FBI’s announcement, showed the same, with Clinton forecast to capture at least 293 electoral votes compared with Trump’s 187. Fifty-eight electoral votes are in the toss-up category.
- Business Insider/Andy Kiersz