- Chip Somodevilla
Paddy Power, an Irish betting market with a large presence in the UK, has already declared a winner of the US presidential election.
The market said Tuesday that it is paying out more than $1 million worth of bets on the Democratic nominee because it looks as though Clinton has sealed a win over Republican nominee Donald Trump.
“With national polls showing a healthy lead for the Democratic candidate and Donald Trump’s campaign running into scandal after scandal, Paddy Power believes it’s a done deal and that Hillary is a nailed-on certainty to occupy the Oval Office,” Paddy Power said in a statement.
The move by the betting market comes as Clinton’s odds have edged up in most models, including hitting 85% on the data site FiveThirtyEight’s polls-plus model and 91% on The New York Times’ Upshot model. She has also expanded her lead in national polls to an average of 6.9 points, according to RealClearPolitics.
The betting market saw a similar decrease in probability for Trump.
“The Donald had seen his initial odds of 100/1 (November 2012-June 2015) freefall to as short as 13/8 (May 2016) at one point but recent revelations have halted his momentum and caused his chances of victory to plummet like the value of sterling, resulting in chunky odds of 9/2 (representing a 18.2% chance of winning),” said the release from Paddy Power.
The betting trends on Paddy Power, as well as recent scandals hitting Trump’s polling numbers, led the betting market to make the call, Paddy Power spokesperson Féilim Mac An Iomaire said in a statement:
“Trump gave it a hell of a shot going from a rank outsider to the Republican candidate, but the recent flood of revelations have halted his momentum, and his chances now look as patchy as his tan. Recent betting trends have shown one-way traffic for Hillary, and punters seemed to have called it 100% correct. Despite Trump’s Make America Great Again message appealing to many disillusioned voters, it looks as though America are going to put a woman in the White House.”
Paddy Power paid out around $700,000 worth of bets on Barack Obama’s 2012 victory two days before that election. There are 21 days before the 2016 election, on November 8.
Paddy Power admitted it’s possible this early payout could be a serious miscalculation.
“Should Trump upset the odds and become 45th President it will trigger the biggest political payout in bookmaking history and leave Paddy Power with some very expensive pie on its face,” said the release from the company.