- Alex Davies/Business Insider
Tesla’s new Model X is great, but Morgan Stanley analysts say it’s too pricey.
After much anticipation, the electric-car company unveiled its new SUV last week, and it said it already had a backlog of orders out to a year.
In a note on Tuesday, Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas wrote that as great as the car was, the $132,000 price tag – mentioned in media reports and quoted for early adopters – was just too expensive.
Jonas and his team lowered their price target on the stock to $450 from $465 with an “overweight” rating.
They wrote (emphasis added):
We had very high expectations for the technical capabilities of the vehicle and it appears Tesla has met these expectations. However, the Model X price appears to have an as much as $25k higher average transaction price (ATP) than the Model S and easily $10k to $15k higher than we had expected, based on early list pricing/specification options. Even allowing the Model X ATPs to decline over time through the introduction of lower-spec models leaves what we believe to be a higher-priced vehicle than we expected that may struggle to meet the volume expectations of the market and our forecasts.
Jonas said the company would have to lower the Model X price to deliver more than 20,000 cars next year. The team also lowered its delivery forecasts on the SUV by 5,000 to 10,000 units from next year through 2018.
Tesla’s stock fell as much as 2% in premarket trading to around $240.50 a share.
It has rallied 10% this year.
The fact Jonas is trimming is target is somewhat surprising since he just boosted it to $465 a month and a half ago. He thinks Tesla is on the cusp of inventing a new business – electric, self-driving cars. Or, Uber without the Uber drivers. The Model X’s price should have no impact on his long-term thesis.