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After four weeks of the NFL season only seven teams still have a legit shot to win the Super Bowl, but there are three teams that stand out above the rest.
Using Nate Silver’s “2015 NFL Predictions,” a model that rates each team and then projects how the regular season and playoffs will play out, we can get a better sense of which teams are the true Super Bowl contenders.
Heading into Week 5, the New England Patriots are still the favorite with a 19% chance to win the Super Bowl. However, the Green Bay Packers (17%) and Denver Broncos (14%) have narrowed the gap. The Patriots and Packers are also already nearly a lock for the postseason as both have a 94% chance to make the playoffs.
In all, there are now seven teams with at least a 5% chance of winning the Super Bowl after four weeks:
New England Patriots, 19% Green Bay Packers, 17% Denver Broncos, 14% Seattle Seahawks, 7% Cincinnati Bengals, 7% Carolina Panthers, 6% Atlanta Falcons, 5%
The Arizona Cardinals (4%), Pittsburgh Steelers (3%), and Dallas Cowboys (3%) just missed the cut and were the only other teams given more than a 2% chance of winning it all.
At the other end of the spectrum, there are now three teams without a legit shot to make the playoffs. The Chicago Bears (4%), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3%), and Cleveland Browns (2%) all have less than a 5% chance to make the playoffs. The Miami Dolphins (5%) are not far behind.
Here are the 8 teams with the best chance to win each division:
- AFC East – New England Patriots, 80% chance to win their division AFC North – Cincinnati Bengals, 67%AFC South – Indianapolis Colts, 53%AFC West – Denver Broncos, 80%NFC East – Dallas Cowboys, 39%NFC North – Green Bay Packers, 88%NFC South – Atlanta Falcons, 56%NFC West – Seattle Seahawks, 49%
You can see the full projections at Five Thirty Eight.