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- After a slow start to the season, Cortana and Elo have caught fire in recent weeks.
- The two models we’re tracking have correctly picked 64% of the games this season.
- Cortana has nailed 82% of the games in the last 4 weeks.
The NFL season is now in Week 11, and one of the two computer models we are tracking has caught fire in recent weeks.
In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team’s winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.
Both models have been on fire in recent weeks. Cortana went 11-3 in Week 10 and is now 45-10 (82%) over the last four weeks. It is now 96-50 (66%) overall, four games better than Elo (92-54, 63%). Elo went 12-2 in Week 10.
Here are the picks for Week 11, with each model’s percent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.
- Tennessee Titans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7) – STEELERS (Elo 76%, Cortana 69%)
- Detroit Lions (-3) at Chicago Bears – LIONS (Elo 62%, Cortana 64%)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (-7.5) at Cleveland Browns – JAGUARS (Elo 77%, Cortana 77%)
- Baltimore Ravens (-2) at Green Bay Packers – PACKERS (Elo 67%), RAVENS (Cortana 63%)
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (-1) – DOLPHINS (Elo 59%, Cortana 51%)
- Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) – VIKINGS (Elo 62%, Cortana 53%)
- Washington Redskins at New Orleans Saints (-8) – SAINTS (Elo 79%, Cortana 78%)
- Kansas City Chiefs (-10.5) at New York Giants – CHIEFS (Elo 75%, Cortana 74%)
- Arizona Cardinals (pick) at Houston Texans – TEXANS (Elo 57%), CARDINALS (Cortana 61%)
- Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Chargers (-4) – CHARGERS (Elo 54%, Cortana 55%)
- Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5) – BRONCOS (Elo 60%, Cortana 53%)
- New England Patriots (-7) at Oakland Raiders – PATRIOTS (Elo 79%, Cortana 77%)
- Philadelphia Eagles (-4) at Dallas Cowboys – COWBOYS (Elo 53%), EAGLES (Cortana 61%)
- Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-3) – SEAHAWKS (Elo 58%, Cortana 61%)