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- After a slow start to the season, Cortana and Elo have been on fire in recent weeks.
- The two models we’re tracking have correctly picked 64% of the games this season.
- Both models had a bad Week 14, but are looking to rebound in Week 15.
The NFL season is now in Week 15, and the two computer models finally had a bad week after a solid two month run.
In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team’s winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.
Both models have been on fire in recent weeks, but finally came back down to Earth in Week 14. Cortana went a disappointing 8-8 last week after going 77-24 over the previous seven weeks. Cortana still holds the overall lead, with a 136-72 (65%) record on the season. Elo was a game worse in Week 14, going 7-9, and is now 130-78 (63%) overall.
Here are the picks for Week 15, with each model’s percent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.
- Denver Broncos (-3) at Indianapolis Colts – COLTS (Elo 51%), BRONCOS (Cortana 58%)
- Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-5) – LIONS (Elo 73%, Cortana 61%)
- Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Kansas City Chiefs – CHIEFS (Elo 62%), CHARGERS (Cortana 53%)
- Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-3) – BILLS (Elo 62%, Cortana 51%)
- Baltimore Ravens (-7) at Cleveland Browns – RAVENS (Elo 83%, Cortana 77%)
- Cincinnati Bengals at Minnesota Vikings (-10.5) – VIKINGS (Elo 83%, Cortana 73%)
- New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-16) – SAINTS (Elo 82%, Cortana 80%)
- Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at New York Giants – EAGLES (Elo 80%, Cortana 78%)
- Arizona Cardinals at Washington Redskins (-4.5) – REDSKINS (Elo 59%, Cortana 57%)
- Green Bay Packers at Carolina Panthers (-3) – PANTHERS (Elo 69%, Cortana 51%)
- Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-11) – JAGUARS (Elo 79%, Cortana 74%)
- Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) – SEAHAWKS (Elo 64%), RAMS (Cortana 51%)
- New England Patriots (-3) at Pittsburgh Steelers – STEELERS (Elo 53%, Cortana 51%)
- Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-2) – TITANS (Elo 63%, Cortana 63%)
- Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Oakland Raiders – NO PICK (Elo 50%), COWBOYS (Cortana 58%)
- Atlanta Falcons (-6) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – FALCONS (Elo 68%, Cortana 75%)