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Week 3 was one football won’t soon forget, with players, coaches, and owners all joining together in a show of solidarity the likes of which the league has never seen.
While the football was great, Week 3 was a tough one for gamblers, with ten underdogs playing at home throughout the week. Of the eight that played on Sunday, six of them won outright, so the best strategy would have been to close our eyes and have faith that the home dogs would come through. Instead, we tried to pick and choose our spots, and ended up making our jobs even harder. Lesson learned, and thankfully, there’s a few more home dogs on the slate this week for anyone looking to recoup some losses from last week.
There’s a few more weird games this week, but also some great bets on the board if you can find them.
Take a look below for all of our official picks against the spread for Week 4 of the season. All lines courtesy of the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.
Chicago Bears (+7.5) at Green Bay Packers (Thursday, 8:25 p.m. ET)
- Dylan Buell/Getty Images
The pick: Packers -7.5
The logic: This line is brutal and Thursday Night Football is always a mess. Better to just stay away from this game and save your money for Sunday, but if you have to get a bet down, just pick which Color Rush jersey you like the best and cheer them on.
New Orleans Saints (-3) at Miami Dolphins (Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET in London)
- Rich Schultz/Getty Images
The pick: Dolphins +3
The logic: I got burned betting a favorite in London last weekend, with the Jaguars making me look foolish by beating up on the Ravens 44-7. The lesson I learned is that weird things happen in London football, and nothing would be weirder than Jay Cutler having the game of his life before coming back stateside and continuing his mediocrity.
This is probably another game you shouldn’t bet.
Buffalo Bills (+8) at Atlanta Falcons (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Leon Halip/Getty Images
The pick: Falcons -8
The logic: Falcons play tough at home and the Bills are coming off the biggest win they’ve had in a while. I don’t doubt the Bills as a solid team and tough game at home moving forward, it’s just not a great spot for them here.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Michael Reaves/Getty Images
The pick: Browns +3
The logic: Last week the Browns were road favorites for the first time in years, and came up short against the Colts. Here, they’re home dogs against the Bengals, a divisional opponent coming off a hardfought game that they barely lost. The Browns can play their division tough at home, as they showed Week 1 against the Steelers, when rookie quarterback DeShone Kizer had his best game. Let’s root for Kizer to get the first win of his career in front of the home crowd.
Los Angeles Rams (+6.5) at Dallas Cowboys (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Jennifer Stewart/Getty Images
The pick: Cowboys -6.5
The logic:Last week we bet the Cowboys over the Cardinals with the simple reasoning that the NFC East is a stronger division this year than the NFC West. It came through us then, as it did it Week 2 when the Redskins took down the Rams. Let’s ride that logic again and see if it can find us another winner.
Detroit Lions (+2) at Minnesota Vikings (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Rey Del Rio/Getty Images
The pick: Lions +2
The logic: The Lions might be the third best team in the NFC. While the Vikings play unbelievably well at home, I refuse to bet my hard-earned dollars on Case Keenum.
Carolina Panthers (+9) at New England Patriots (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Jim Rogash/Getty Images
The pick: Patriots -9
The logic: This game is a setup. Every betting trend says to bet the Panthers, but the idea of the Pats playing two tight games in a row at home is absurd, and the Carolina defense has so many holes that the Pats should be able to put up a lot of points. Every sucker in Vegas is putting money on the Patriots in this spot, so if you want to bet with the smart money, go the other way. But this week you can count me among the suckers.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-3) at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)`
- Matthew Lewis/Getty Images
The pick: Ravens +3
The logic: Dating back to 2009, in 18 matchups between these fierce division rivals, the winner has been decided by three points or less 11 times. On five other occasions, the Ravens won by more than three. Even if the Ravens two wins this season have come against the Browns and the Bengals, history indicates it’s a great place to take the Ravens getting points. Further, the Ravens are a home dog coming off a game where they looked worse than they actually are. While I don’t love the idea of taking a team coming off a long flight, it’s hard to imagine the Ravens sleeping through this game, and the Steelers haven’t shown themselves to be world beaters yet.
Jacksonville Jaguars (-3.5) at New York Jets (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Al Bello/Getty Images
The pick: Jets +3.5
The logic: Blake Bortles looked good on Sunday in London… almost too good. Also, while I’m not worried about the Ravens getting up for a home game against a division rival after a long trip, the prospect of going straight from London to another road game against an opponent you feel like you should roll over smells a whole lot like a trap game to me. I just can’t quit you Josh McCown.
Tennessee Titans (-1.5) at Houston Texans (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
- Jim Rogash/Getty Images
The pick: Houston +1.5
The logic: It’s just Houston’s second home game of the season but after losing their first their, J.J. Watt and company are going to want to put up a big win in front of the Houston faithful in the first game of a three-week homestand. Deshaun Watson looked better than ever last week when he pushed the Patriots to the brink, let’s see if he can do it again in this spot.
San Francisco 49ers (+7) at Arizona Cardinals (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
- Ezra Shaw/Getty Images
The pick: Niners +7
The logic: The Niners gave us the most exciting cover of the year last week in a Thursday night shootout against the Rams, and it feels only appropriate to put our money their way one more time as a thank you. Also, despite an impressive opening drive on Monday night against Dallas, it doesn’t really feel like this Cardinals team should be favored by a touchdown over any team.
New York Giants (+3) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
- Adam Bettcher/Getty Images
The pick: Buccaneers -3
The logic: I take pleasure in the Giants losses. Let’s keep the train going.
Philadelphia Eagles (+1.5) at San Diego Chargers (Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET)
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The pick: Eagles +1.5
The logic: This has all the makings of a trap game for the Eagles – they’re going on the road after an emotional division win against an opponent in the other conference. Meanwhile, the Chargers look like the strongest 0-3 team in NFL history, with two losses due to missed field goals and another tight loss to the Chiefs last week who are probably the best team in the NFL right now. All signs point to the fact that you bet the Chargers in this game, it’s likely the smarter play. But as an Eagles fan at heart I can’t bring myself to do it, and sometimes you just have to follow your heart.
Oakland Raiders (+2.5) at Denver Broncos (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
- Rob Carr/Getty Images
The pick: Raiders +2.5
The logic: The Raiders looked about as bad as a football team can when they played in primetime against the Redskins on Sunday, so chances are they’re a bit undervalued here. It’s tough to imagine talents like Carr, Cooper, and Crabtree being shut down like that for two straight weeks, even against a defense as strong as the Broncos.
Indianapolis Colts (+13) at Seattle Seahawks (Sunday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
- Andy Lyons/Getty Images
The pick: Colts +13
The logic: This game almost looks too easy. The Seahawks haven’t looked good all season – what are they doing laying almost two touchdowns? I know Seattle is a tough place to play, and maybe you think the bright lights get to Jacoby Brissett, but the Colts have not looked awful this year! Oddly enough, I almost feel like I’d be more excited about picking the Colts if they were +8 because this line is so high it makes me suspicious that Las Vegas is privy to some information I am not. Still, when in doubt with a double-digit line, take the points.
Washington Redskins (+7) at Kansas City Chiefs (Monday, 8:30 p.m. ET)
- Andy Lyons/Getty Images
The pick: Chiefs -7
The logic: Chiefs are home on Monday night and looking like the best team in the NFL. I think their reign might come crashing down some time soon, but it feels like the Redskins are about to get crushed here. I wish I drafted Tyreke Hill.
LAST WEEK: 7-9OVERALL: 28-19
Now check out our power rankings heading into another week of NFL action