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- Several offshore betting sites have listed odds on Oprah Winfrey’s potential presidential campaign and have positioned her as the leading potential candidate of a crowded Democratic field.
- Listed at 8/1, her odds are currently better than every other candidate in the field aside from President Donald Trump, including many impressive senators expected to mull a run in 2020.
- The implied probability of her odds indicate that Oprah has a 11% chance of taking the White House in 2020 at this way-too-early point in the race.
As talk of an Oprah Winfrey presidential campaign continues to grow, oddsmakers have taken notice – and they appear to like her chances of taking the White House.
After her emotional acceptance speech at the Golden Globes, observers noticed her rallying cry sounded much like a potential campaign speech. With her high name-recognition, admiration from many women and men across the political spectrum, and President Donald Trump’s success as a presidential candidate, “Oprah 2020?” headlines began popping up.
Writers and newscasters debated the merits of her potential candidacy and her chances in a hypothetical race. But bookmakers’ listed odds suggest Oprah might have the strongest chance of anyone to beat out Trump for the Oval Office, as she’s now listed with the second-best odds in what’s expected to be a crowded field of candidates.
Currently, Oprah is listed at 8/1 to win the White House at the offshore betting site 5dimes – meaning a $100 bet would win you $800 should she take the presidency in 2020. That puts her ahead of an impressive list of experienced politicians, including Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren (12/1), California Sen. Kamala Harris (14/1), New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (16/1), and New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker (33/1), all of whom have shown signs they are considering a 2020 run.
Oprah is also listed with much better odds than other celebrities people think might throw their hat in the 2020 ring, including Dwayne Johnson (28/1), Mark Zuckerberg (33/1), Mark Cuban (66/1), and Kanye West (150/1).
While most sites currently have Oprah somewhere between 8/1 or 12/1, at one site her odds have gotten as high as almost 2/1. Perhaps even more surprisingly, the odds indicate her entrance into the presidential race is all but inevitable.
Will Oprah Winfrey run for President in 2020?
Yes: -400, No: +330
Will Oprah win in 2020?
Yes: +220, No: -270
Will Oprah win Democratic Primary in 2020?
Yes: -350, No: +290
— PJ Walsh (@PJWalsh24) January 9, 2018
All of these odds should be taken with a grain of salt, since the 2020 election remains nearly three years away.
Additionally, the lines are set to anticipate where the gambling public will place their bets. So if some sites expected a rush of Oprah bettors in the wake of her impressive speech, there’s a chance some oddsmakers juiced her odds a bit to protect from being overexposed.
But oddsmakers are sometimes ahead of the general public when it comes to recognizing political trends and swings in favorability. While Trump’s campaign was derided when he announced his candidacy, bookmakers’ odds always gave him a chance and named him the favorite to win the Republican nomination far earlier than news outlets did. Additionally, on election night, live betting odds swung to Trump much earlier than the New York Times’ now iconic needle.
At 8/1, Oprah’s implied odds of winning the presidency are 11%, a solid position in what’s expected to be a crowded field. Rasmussen Reports, a right-leaning polling firm, published a survey Wednesday that found Oprah led Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup.