One chart shows how the oil crash has dictated 2 very different US economic stories

Oil has been one of the biggest stories of the past year.

Many economists immediately pointed out that lower oil prices would be good news for the American consumer: lower oil means lower gas, and lower gas means more disposable income. And that means people can save some extra cash, or spend it on a few extra nights out at Chipotle.

However, there’s quite a different story for those Americans living in oil-intensive states.

In a recent slide-deck to clients, Renaissance Macro Research’s head of economics Neil Dutta shared a chart comparing the payroll performances in the ten states where oil and gas extraction is the highest as a share of total nonfarm employment to the other forty.

And the divergence is glaring.

“The decline in oil prices has rotated growth away from energy-producing states to energy-consuming ones,” writes Dutta. “Over the last six months, energy intensive states have seen no growth in payrolls on average while non-energy intensive states saw growth of 0.14% per month.

Check out the chart below.

source
Renaissance Macro Research