Here is what you need to know.
The latest UK referendum poll shows Remain out in front. With Britain voting this week on whether to stay in the European Union, momentum appears to have swung back to the Remain camp. Two polls released Sunday showed Remain ahead 45% to 42% and 44% to 43%. A third poll indicated that the vote was tied at 44%. This is a big change from the previous round of polls, which showed Leave to be up by as much as 6 points. The British pound is higher by 1.7% at 1.4608.
The head of India’s central bank won’t seek another term. Raghuram Rajan says he will return to the University of Chicago’s Booth School of Business. Rajan has been credited with helping turn around India’s economy. India’s rupee is weaker by 0.5% at 67.4350 per dollar.
Japanese exports tumbled in May. The latest trade data released by Japan’s Ministry of Finance showed that the value of exports fell 11.3% year-over-year in May as the stronger yen made goods less attractive. Exports to Japan’s largest customer, China, plunged 14.9% YoY, while shipments to the US sank 10.7% YoY. On the other side of the ledger, imports fell 13.8%, causing Japan’s trade balance to swing back to a deficit of 40.7 billion yen, compared with a surplus of 823.5 billion yen in April.
Traders are piling into the yen. Net long yen positions surged by $2.2 billion to $5.3 billion, according to Commodity Futures Trading Commission data, cited by ANZ. “One currency benefiting from Brexit uncertainty is the yen,” wrote Khoon Goh, senior FX strategist at ANZ. “The yen’s safe haven status has been apparent in recent weeks.”
Nigeria’s currency is crashing. Nigeria’s central bank removed the dollar peg of its currency, the naira, as the country looks for ways to combat falling oil prices. Monday’s action has caused the naira to crash 27% to 257 per dollar. “A functioning flexible exchange rate will reduce dollar liquidity shortages and associated risks of banks failing to meet their dollar liabilities when due or requiring the Central Bank of Nigeria to impose capital controls,” the rating agency Moody’s said. “It also will allow banks to expand their trade business, supporting their fee income and profitability.”
Investors should worry about 3 dates this year. Core Spreads chief market strategist and technical analyst Sandy Jadeja has correctly warned about several market crashes, and he told Business Insider that investors should mark down August 26-30, September 26, and October 20 as three dates that spell trouble for the Dow Jones index. “We are currently in a very dangerous time zone between 2011 until 2018. This is an 84-year cycle [called the ‘Time Cycle’] and the previous cycle appeared during 1928 until 1934 where the Great Depression took place,” he said.
The Cigna-Anthem merger might hit a snag. US antitrust regulators are unsure whether “the companies can offer enough concessions to maintain competition in the industry,” Reuters says, citing The Wall Street Journal. And Wall Street doesn’t seem to be convinced that a deal will happen either. Cigna shares ended Friday’s session at $129.50, about 33% below the deal price of $183.36 a share.
‘Finding Dory’ broke a box-office record. Disney’s animated film had the biggest domestic opening weekend ever for an animated film. “Finding Dory” raked in $136.2 million across 4,305 US theaters, Reuters reports. The film brought in another $50 million overseas, including $17.5 million in China.
Stock markets around the world up. Japan’s Nikkei (+2.3%) led in Asia, and Germany’s DAX (+3.4%) paces the advance in Europe. S&P 500 futures are higher by 27.50 points at 2,086.25.
US economic data is absent. Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s semiannual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony kicks off Tuesday. Data for the week is extremely light and doesn’t begin to flow until Wednesday. This week’s highlights include existing-home sales, new-home sales, durable orders, and University of Michigan consumer sentiment. The US 10-year yield is higher by 6 basis points at 1.67%.