The Democrat in the nation’s biggest election just got his best poll yet — and he’s surging at the exact right time

Conor Lamb.

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Conor Lamb.
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Drew Angerer/Getty Images

  • Democrat Conor Lamb was found to be leading Republican Rick Saccone by his biggest margin yet in a new poll.
  • Monmouth University found Lamb leading in all of its turnout models.
  • This is a total reversal of Monmouth’s poll last month.
  • The election is Tuesday.

A Monmouth University poll released Monday found Democrat Conor Lamb leading Republican Rick Saccone in the special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District – a district President Donald Trump won by 20 points in 2016 – by his most impressive margin yet.

The poll found Lamb winning based on all three of the turnout models it projected. If turnout in the district mirrors other Democratic surges that took place in 2017 special elections, Lamb, a former Marine and federal prosecutor, holds a 6-point lead over Saccone, a state legislator.

Modeled for historical midterm turnout levels, Lamb holds a 49% to 47% edge over Saccone, while the model that projects turnout similar to a presidential election gives Lamb a 51% to 44% advantage.

It’s a huge change from last month’s Monmouth poll, which found Saccone leading in each of the three models. Lamb and Saccone are fighting to win the seat vacated by former longtime Republican Rep. Tim Murphy, who resigned late last year amid an abortion-related scandal.

“This district has voted overwhelmingly Republican in recent elections, but a large number of these voters have blue-collar Democratic roots,” Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said in a statement. “Lamb seems to have connected with them.”

Recent polling has shown a tight race in the district, with a Gravis poll giving Saccone a 3-point edge while an Emerson poll had Lamb with a similar 3-point advantage. Earlier polling showed Saccone with a more significant edge in the race.

The election takes place Tuesday.