Snap Inc. failed to meet Wall Street’s expectations for its second quarter as a public company on Thursday, sending its already-battered stock diving to an all-time low.
The number of daily Snapchat users increased by 7 million from the first quarter, but analysts were expecting that number to go up by 10 million. Snap also fell short of the Street’s revenue expectations by reporting $181.7 million with a net loss of $0.16 per share.
Snap stock has fallen off a cliff since its hotly anticipated initial public offering earlier this year. Investors are worried that the young app maker won’t be able to grow its ad business in the face of mounting competition from Facebook.
Also weighing on the stock: Employees will also be able to sell their shares on the public market for the first time next week, presenting an ultimate test of confidence in the company.
Here are the key numbers from Snap’s Q2 earnings:
- Revenue: $181.7 million vs. $189 million expected. Earnings per share (adjusted): Net loss of $0.16 vs. $0.15 expected Daily active users: 173 million vs. 175 million expected.
Here’s what Wall Street analysts are saying about Snap’s disappointing Q2 results:
Price target: $16
Comment: “Near-term issues hang on the stock, but we believe patient investors should look through the noise at the long term opportunity. We are lowering our numbers in the near-term on weaker pricing. Maintain Buy and PT to $16.
2nd quarter in a row with miss quarter (on no guide). Pricing in the near-term ill be weak as they use pricing as a lever to continue to on board additional advertisers to build out robust demand for Snap Ads. Additionally, Snap will face pressure from employees being able to sell shares for the first time since IPO (although co-founders Spiegel & Murphy noted they would not sell their ~422MM shares this year). Lastly, we feel that SNAP’s unwillingness to provide Street guidance will continue to be a disservice to shareholders as estimates continue to fluctuate wildly and it introduces unneeded uncertainty into results (even an overly conservative guidance would be appreciated).”
Goldman Sachs: BULLISH
Price target: $23
Comment: “Snap reported 2Q revenue of $182mn (+153% yoy vs. 286% in 1Q) and adj. EBITDA of ($194)mn vs. our forecasts of $188mn and ($174.8)mn. DAU net adds were 7mn, down from 8mn in 1Q and below our estimate of 10mn, though North America net adds were +4mn, up from +3mn in 1Q. While SNAP remains a near venture stage investment with all of the risks that implies, we continue to believe its audience and engagement represent a unique asset that will benefit from the growth and diversification of internet usage and advertiser adoption as both mature. Therefore, we remain Buy-rated with a 12-month price target of $23, down from $27.”
RBC Capital: BULLISH
Price target: $20
Comment: “Q2 Revenue, EBITDA, and DAUs fell short of Street expectations – Revenue by 3%, EBITDA by 7%, and Net DAU’s by 2MM. While results are weaker than expectations, we still argue against results altering our long-term thesis. Way too early with much of the market still up for grabs. Materially lowering estimates & PT to $20. Maintain Outperform.”
Price target: $16
Comment: “We’re lowering our target from $23 to $16, but maintaining our Outperform rating. DAU growth is stable, but advertising ramp remains sluggish on shift to auction-based pricing. Potential ad revenue drivers include newly launched self-service ad platform (appeals to direct response advertisers), while brand marketers continue to work with SNAP toward better measurement, which should increase auction pricing. NA net adds accelerated 1M Q/Q to 4M, while NA APRU slowed to +85% y/y vs +173% in 1Q, driving revenue 6%/4% below Opco/Street. Gross profit and EBITDA were ahead of Opco, partially on lower cloud costs and R&D. Cutting ’17/’18 revenues 16%/15%. Target assumes 13x/10x ’18E/19E ad sales vs. FB trading at 9x/7x ’18E/’19E ad sales.”
Rating: Equal weight
Price target: $13
Comment: “SNAP reported DAU and revenue that were slightly below consensus, and the tone of the call was upbeat. Stepping back from the print, we like what we are seeing in terms of engagement and usage increases, albeit at a slower pace than direct peers (and SNAP’s 1H16 cadence). On the revenue side, we think the company is making the right moves by reducing price to encourage more advertiser adoption and increase ROAS. At 8x 2018E revenue in the after-market (~$11.50), we think valuation is starting to look more attractive, but want to see upside to estimates before getting more bullish.”
Price target: $12
Comment: “For the 2nd quarter in row, SNAP produced a set of quarterly results that continue to leave unanswered many of the long-term debates on the scope of its platform (users + engagement) and the potential for success in an early stage advertising business (which needs to scale to justify current market valuation). Looking forward, we continue to see SNAP as a social media/messaging platform that can produce/sustain high levels of user engagement (which should appeal to advertisers in search of mobile/video ad inventory). However, as we reduce forward estimates in the coming years (for the 2nd quarter in row), we also lower our forward valuation (PT to $12 from $19) and expect the stock to remain volatile (competition, lockup expiry & narrowing of Street estimates over forward quarters).”
Credit Suisse: BULLISH
Price target: $17
Comment: “Our estimates reset lower in the near-term, as we along with the Street will interpret management’s commentary around Olympics and Election-driven accentuated seasonality for 3Q16 as a move to manage expectations. That being said with the recent release of the self-service platform on top of the API rollout late 2016, 60% of Snap Ad impressions were delivered programmatically, which was up by a factor of 2x QOQ – this suggests to us that the frictional forces against greater budget deployment are starting to come off. And as Snap moved from reserved inventory sales to auction, the lower reset to effective CPMs during the quarter should begin to reverse due to auction pressure. We hence believe the downward revision to estimates should be the last, especially as we enter the 2H of the year.”
Pivotal Research: SELL
Price target: $9
Comment: “Snap reported decent 2Q17 results, with relatively in-line revenues vs. our forecast. Costs were higher than we expected, but then so too was usage, coinciding with the company’s Map product launch. Commentary around like-for-like advertiser spending increases, new ad product launches and geographic expansion can also be viewed favorably. However, our overall financial model remains relatively unchanged post these results. Our price target remains at $9 per share on a YE2017 basis, which continues to lead us to rate the stock Sell.”
FBN Securities: BULLISH
Rating: Sector Perform
Price target: $15
Comment: “We reiterate our Sector Perform on SNAP and lower our PT from $17 to $15. The company reported a FQ2 revenue and EPS miss as user growth and ARPU each missed expectations. As we wrote in our August 8 preview, we lowered our estimates for user growth to reflect less robust product launches so far in 2017 compared to the Lenses introduction in early 2016, and indeed net adds of only 7M in FQ2 2017 missed consensus of 9M (and declined from 8M in FQ1 and 21M the year before). With our new estimates, we lower our F2018 revenue estimate by 15% (to $1.58B from $1.85B before) and our F2018 NG EPS estimate by $.19 (to -$.67 from -$.46 before).”
Drexel Hamilton: BULLISH
Price target: $30
Comment: “Last night, Snap reported 2Q:17 sales that handily beat our projections but fell slightly short of the Street estimates that we believe were simply too high. We are raising our estimates and maintaining our 12-month price of $30.00.
Snap continues to grow at a rapid pace, introduce new innovations and roll-out compelling content; however, the company’s reluctance to provide guidance is driving the Street to make unachievable forecasts. This is turning strong quarterly performances into disappointments. Trading (based on after-market price) at an EV/revenue of 8.2x our CY:18 sales estimate, we would be aggressive buyers on weakness this morning”