In today’s market, it seems all you need to pay attention to is the opening to know where stocks are going to close.
According to Bespoke Investment Group, the intraday trading range for the S&P 500 – that is, the range between the highest and lowest points at which stocks trade during the day – has been tighter over the past 50 days than in any other period going back to when its intraday database started in 1984.
“In a post on Monday, we noted that the average intraday range for the S&P 500 over the last 50 trading days had reached its second narrowest level on record, and that if the S&P 500 did not trade in a range of more than 1% on Tuesday that it would be the narrowest average range in a 50-trading day period on record,” Bespoke said in a note.
“Well, in Tuesday’s trading the S&P 500’s intraday range came in at just 0.37%, pushing the 50-day average intraday high/low range down to 0.523%, which is the lowest level since at least 1983 when our historical database begins.”
Not only has the average intraday range been incredibly low, but the S&P 500 has gone 50 days without an intraday range of more than 1%, Bespoke said, well over the previous record streak of 34 days in the September 1995.
Over that time period, the VIX index – which measures the volatility of the S&P 500 – has stayed relatively range-bound as well between 10.5 and 13, well below its long-term average.
As Bespoke concluded, “Now, that’s a lack of volatility!”
- Bespoke Investment Group