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Two key recession signals in the bond markets are nearing crisis levels

An inverted US yield curve and negative bond yields in Europe could signal an impending recession.
Global markets are down, hurt by trade-war fears, and weak economic data in Asia and Europe.

So much for a ‘Santa rally’: Trump’s trade war is sending the S&P 500 toward its worst December since 2002

US-China trade-war tensions heightened over the weekend, sending global stocks lower. Weak data in China, Japan, and Germany also weighed on sentiment.

Global stocks drop after Trump trade-war jitters spark US bloodbath

Global equities took a hit Wednesday as trade-war jitters gripped financial markets. The Nasdaq and the S&P 500 tumbled more than 3.2% each Tuesday.

The bond market just flashed a major ‘red flag’ — and it could be signaling a US recession

There's a darkening tone in bond markets a troubling sign for the US economy. Yield curves are inverting and flattening, stoking recessionary fears.

Why global markets are collapsing right now, and who you should blame for it

A major correction in the asset markets has been building for a while. There have been 10 years of economic growth since the great financial crisis of 2008, and a bull market in stocks of pretty much the same length.
Happy Halloween, investors!

‘TOO LATE’: 4 charts about the fragility of the markets that ought to make investors scared

Gluskin Sheff argues that it's "too late" in the cycle to invest once the curve goes to zero.

A trusty recession signal is telling the Fed ‘we’re about where we need to be’ on interest rates

Look no further than the $15 trillion US government bond market for evidence investors are not convinced the Federal Reserve can keep raising interest rates at the recent clip without derailing the economy, which remains fragile despite strong headline numbers.
The curve can be friendly or it can be mean.

If the yield curve is not an indicator of impending doom, why is everybody talking about the yield curve so much?

Although some smart famous people think the yield curve is broken, there are some equally smart not-so-famous people who are watching it very carefully.

Wall Street’s favorite recession gauge is flashing yellow again — and not everyone thinks it’s a false alarm

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has argued the narrowing gap between long- and short-term borrowing costs is nothing to worry about. Some of his colleagues, including St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, disagree.
Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House Financial Services Committee in the Rayburn House Office Building on Capitol Hill February 27, 2018 in Washington, DC. Powell testified about the Federal Reserve's semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress and the state of the economy

Fed chair Jerome Powell is whistling past 2 looming threats to the US economy

ANALYSIS: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell downplayed the threat of a trade war to the US economy. He also dismissed a key recession signal emerging from the bond market yield spreads, despite its historical reliability.