- Andy Kiersz/Business Insider
The 2016 Electoral College map is looking very similar to the map from 2012, but already a few major differences are evident.
As of Monday, four states have flipped from 2012, when President Barack Obama faced off against Republican nominee Mitt Romney: Nevada, Iowa, and Ohio from blue to red, and North Carolina from red to blue. In addition, the 2nd Congressional District in Maine flipped from blue to red, providing an extra electoral vote.
If that map were to hold, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton would top Republican nominee Donald Trump by a 312-226 total – a slightly tighter race compared with Obama’s 332-206 victory in 2012.
But it’s not so safe for Clinton just yet. In Colorado and Pennsylvania, Clinton is polling slightly below where Obama finished in 2012 – with Colorado amounting to a virtual toss-up, and Pennsylvania not too far behind. In North Carolina, where Romney won by 2 points in 2012, Clinton’s lead is as slight as can be over Trump.
Trump has a scraping advantage in Nevada while holding moderate leads in Iowa, Georgia, Arizona, and even Texas – the latter three are Republican strongholds.
The best piece of news for Trump is his semisubstantial lead in Ohio. That state has voted for the winner of every presidential election since 1964; the last time the state voted against the national winner was in 1960, when it went in favor of then Vice President Richard Nixon instead of former President John F. Kennedy.
When looking at the overall picture, Sam Wang, a Princeton University professor who runs the university’s election consortium, told Business Insider that the election is looking very similar to the one that preceded it.
A top election forecaster, Wang said Trump’s and Romney’s support levels are “real similar,” with a correlation coefficient slightly below 1.0, which is a perfect positive correlation.
“There’s some interesting phenomenon under the surface with demographics that have split differently, like non-college-educated whites going more for Trump than usual, [and] college-educated people, professionals, going for Hillary Clinton more than usual,” he said. “Overall, the correlation is quite strong.”
“I would say Donald Trump is looking a lot like Mitt Romney lite,” he said. “Maybe some Republicans are peeled off because they don’t care for what he is or who he is, but it’s pretty similar.”