This chart is just the worst.
Via Deutsche Bank’s Torsten Sløk, this chart shows the decline in where Wall Street analysts thought the 10-year Treasury note would finish 2015.
Last summer, everybody thought yields were going higher and that the 10-year would rise to north of 3.5%.
By this month, Wall Street was still hanging onto its call that yields would rise, but had trimmed expectations to around 2.4% from today’s yield of about 2.1%.
And so these projections simply followed the 10-year yield itself lower and re-based to call for higher yields from a lower starting point.
Said another way, the Street was wrong the whole time and never really admitted to it, even though they tried.
- Deutsche Bank
And here’s what happened to the 10-year note over that period.